Tomorrow night is the night. UFC 286 is finally here and the weigh-ins are set! That means it's time to release the picks for tomorrow. As always we are using DraftKings fight lines. Unfortunately, I feel like this is a "lock-less" card, therefore won't be placing any locks for the night. That being said I am still very confident in my picks and you should be too, so here they are.
The first fight we're taking is Muhammad Mokaev (-850) vs Jafel Filho (+600). Mokaev is a lock to win the fight, but his money-line odds aren't necessarily worth any action. That's why we're taking him via submission (+110). Mokaev has had 3 dominant victories in the UFC so far. Two out of three he won through the use of submissions. The other was he won via unanimous decision. Mokaev is British with Russian roots. People forget this is also a home fight for Mokaev. He is undefeated in the O2 arena so far and would like to remain unbeaten. Mokaev is 9-0 in his MMA career and shows every sign of being a future champion in the UFC. Mokaev via submission (+110) is the closest pick to a lock we may get this weekend.
The second fight worth action seems like Marvin Vettori (-275) vs Roman Dolidze (+230). Roman Dolidze has won three out of his last four fights via TKO/KO. On the other hand, Marvin Vettori's last five fights have all gone to a decision win or lose. Roman might have knockout power and really fast hands, but Marvin's chin was able to withstand a beatdown from Robert "Bobby Knuckles" Whittaker. I believe Marvin has full capability of going the distance with the best of them, even if Roman can out-strike Marvin I don't believe he will put him out. I didn't take a winner, I took the fight to end via decision (-175). I believe Vettori's chin makes this a really safe play.
Justin Gaethje (+200) vs Rafael Fiziev (-240) is one of those fights where you never really know what's gonna happen. Gaethje is called the highlight, but in truth, both men are human highlight reels. Gaethje and Fiziev both love to get into a war with their opponent. Gaethje has more of a boxing/kickboxing style whereas Rafael Fiziev's Muay Thai is top-tier. It is going to be a clash of the titans, but I'm going with the favorite in Fiziev. Rafael Fiziev is on a hell of a run right now. He's on a six-fight win streak against fighters including Marc Diakiese, Bobby Green, Renato Moicano, Brad Riddell, and Rafael Dos Anjos. He finished RDA, Moicano, and Riddell. In all five of the fights we mentioned, Fiziev earned performance bonuses. Gaethje's last win is against Michael Chandler back in November of 2021. In his last bout, he suffered a first-round submission against Charles Oliveira in a Lightweight Championship bout. Gaethje is one of those guys who can win any fight, but Fiziev is on fire right now. It's time for a changing of the guard in the Lightweight rankings. It's time for Rafael Fiziev. Rafael Fiziev (-240) is the pick.
The main event is going to be epic. Leon Edwards (+200) vs Kamaru Usman (-240). The oddsmakers believe Usman is going to reclaim his title. I couldn't disagree more. Kamaru Usman is one of the greatest Welterweight fighters of all time. However, fighters are 3-11 in immediate championship rematches. Not only are the odds statistically against Usman, but he's in Leon's territory. Edwards trains in Birmingham. The people of London and Birmingham breathe the same air. Usman trains in Denver where the elevation is high which gave him a major advantage against Edwards in their Championship bout in Utah. Leon wasn't prepared for the altitude in Salt Lake and was still able to persevere through the adversity and win with a beautiful head-kick knockout. I believe Leon can win again due to being able to compete with Usman's gas tank in the low altitude of London. I also believe the crowd is going to play a huge factor for "Rocky" Edwards. Leon (+200) is the play. He's going to do it again.
If you take the Opinion Octagon Parlay right now you'll be taking Mokaev via submission (+110), Vettori vs Dolidze to end in a decision (-175), Fiziev ML (-240), and Leon Edwards (+200) for (+1302) total parlay odds! Good luck this weekend, as always tweet us @opinionoctagon if you take our picks win or lose!
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